Dismal Reality of Job Numbers

Today, we stand before another display of “Budget-Busting Bidenomics” revealing its alarming contours as we delve deep into the latest job numbers. August’s jobs report has come in, and on the surface, it seems like a triumph with a headline payroll print of 187K, surpassing the expected 170K. But as we peer beneath this optimistic façade, we encounter a starkly different reality, fraught with signs of a brewing economic storm. Let’s dissect the facts one by one.

A Trend of Downward Revisions

A perceptive eye will note that the celebrated job numbers have been constantly revised downwards in subsequent months, raising serious questions about the authenticity of the initial figures released by the Biden administration. This phenomenon has happened unfailingly, facilitating a temporary surge in market buoyancy only to later usher in quiet downward adjustments. One might surmise this tactic is employed to mask the looming recession.

The Hidden Depths of the Job Prints

Behind the headline job prints, we find the Household Survey and Establishment Survey painting contrasting pictures. Although the Establishment Survey reported a relatively weak 187K jobs, the Household Survey noted an increase in employed workers by 268K to 161.3 million. Surprisingly positive, until we scrutinize the underpinnings of these numbers.

Birth-Death Model: A Mirage of Job Gains

The Birth-Death (B-D) model, a part of the BLS’s Current Employment Statistics (CES) release, saw its fifth consecutive upward adjustment, attributing to the creation of 103K new jobs. This staggering figure, however, is not rooted in observable facts but hinged on historical trend lines known only to the BLS, casting a long shadow on the celebrated job “gains.”

The Dismal Reality of Job Quality

Delving deeper, we note an alarming trend in the quality of jobs recorded by the Household Survey. The recent data showcases a sharp decline in full-time jobs by 85K, adding to July’s massive decrease of 585K. This nosedive marks the largest two-month full-time job reduction since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, revealing a worrisome trajectory.

Moreover, while the number of employed individuals rose by 222,000, it was primarily driven by a spike in part-time positions. A shocking surge of over one million part-time workers in the past two months denotes a precarious job market, characterized by instability and lesser earnings.

Multiple Jobholders: A Sad Silver Lining

Interestingly, we observed a marginal decrease in multiple jobholders by 85K to 8.028 million in August. However, this figure remains perilously close to the pre-Covid record, indicating that a significant portion of the populace is still struggling to make ends meet through singular employment.

Seasonal Adjustments: Masking the True Picture

SouthBay Research highlights the stark disparities between the Seasonal Adjustments and the actual ground reality. An alarming 90% of the 179K private payroll growth in August stemmed from Seasonal Adjustments, signifying a substantial embellishment of the true state of the job market. Furthermore, unadjusted hiring presented a grim picture, marking the second worst since the Great Recession in 2009.

A Potpourri of Lies and Propaganda

In summary, the August jobs report is enveloped in a smog of misinformation and manipulated statistics. Although the headlines trumpet a job addition of 187K and an increase in employed workers by 222K, a closer inspection unveils a mere increase of 20K jobs, painting a dismal picture of the economic landscape under “Brandonomics.”

The fabric of the job market is unraveling with a worrying decline in full-time positions, replaced by a bloating number of part-time roles. This scenario paints a future where individuals will have to juggle multiple jobs just to keep up, silently suffering under an administration more focused on crafting grand narratives than bolstering the economic wellbeing of its citizens.

As we venture forward, let us not be swayed by the flurry of misinformation disseminated by a media landscape more keen on supporting a political agenda than empowering the populace with truthful reporting. Let us commit to unearthing the truth hidden beneath the manipulated statistics and political rhetoric that does more to obscure than to reveal the true state of our nation’s economy.

Be prepared for the coming theater of non-stop spin and disinformation from the Biden administration, aided by a liberal media content with being a propaganda machine rather than a source of credible information. The American populace deserves better; they deserve the truth devoid of deceit, embellishment, and political spin. It’s high time we demanded accountability and transparency in reporting, holding the governing bodies to a higher standard of truth and integrity.

Dennis Ivanov

A Talent Acquisition Architect and an advisor to Executive Leadership on Talent Acquisition strategies. From start-ups to global organizations, Dennis excels in designing impactful solutions that optimize talent acquisition and HR processes. With a competitive spirit and strong communication skills, he fosters continuous improvement and champions diversity and inclusion.

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